By-Election Analysis Confirms SNP Lead

The latest by-election analysis shows the SNP retaining its lead in the polls. With six local by-elections since the May 2007 election the SNP has won four, gaining two new seats and securing 39% of the overall vote.

Labour, who suffered a humiliating 11% fall in their vote in Elgin reached a new low winning only 97 votes in last week’s Perth Council by election.

Commenting on the analysis Prospective Parliamentary candidate for Falkirk, John McNally said,

"This week's tremendous SNP victory in Perth reflects the excellent
national standing of the SNP.

"With voting taking place on the day councils across the country opted to freeze the council tax it is clear this is a major public endorsement for
the SNP Government.

"Labour suffered a humiliating defeat in Elgin last week and political meltdown of their vote in Perth this week making Wendy Alexander’s boasts of a Labour recovery look like spin.

As by-election results from across the country show Labour are
increasingly isolated.

44% of Labour votes across all six by-elections came from retaining a
Labour seat in North Lanarkshire.  Though even there the SNP saw a 2%
swing from Labour.

"Meanwhile the SNP has gained two new seats as well as increasing our
share of the vote at the Lochee by-election in Dundee and Highland Ward of Perth & Kinross Council.

With the introduction of a council tax freeze, the abolition of
prescription charges, the scrapping of tolls on the Forth and Tay bridges, a reduction in business rates and the delivery of more police in our communities the SNP Government is working hard to deliver a better future for Scotland, one which is clearly winning the support of people across Scotland."

RESULTS OF BY-ELECTION ANALYSIS

1. 2 SNP Gain, 2 SNP Hold, 1 LD Gain, 1 Lab Hold

2. Midstocket/Rosemount (Aberdeen) in August; SNP gain seat from Tory; Moved from 2nd place in 1st preference votes to 1st place; 4% increase in vote.

3. Helensburgh & Lomond South (Argyll & Bute Council, Dumbarton Constituency - Holyrood) in October; LibDems gain seat from Independent.

4. Lochee (Dundee) in November; SNP hold; 2% increase in vote; Nicol Stephen visited 5 times - the Lib Dems achieved 11%; Lochee has historically been viewed as a Labour stronghold; Lochee voters received a sustained (and failing) assault by the opposition on the budget and SNP policies.

5. Kilsyth (North Lanarkshire Council, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth Holyrood Constituency) in January. Labour hold. Only Labour by-election victory since May 2007.  The by-election was caused by the death of a Labour councillor. The Labour votes here account for 44% of all Labour votes across the 6 by-elections since May.

6. Elgin South, (Moray Council, Moray Holyrood Constituency) in February. SNP Gain. The by-election was held following the death of an Independent councillor.  Labour fell from 2nd to 3rd with an 11% fall in their vote.

7. Highland Ward (Perth & Kinross Council), in February, SNP hold. The SNP took 60% of the first preference votes in a difficult seat where the previous SNP Councillor had been an extremely popular local Councillor.